The Functional Data Analysis (FDA) approach is proposed towards modelling time series data because of recognition of the need to better analyse, model and forecast data observed over time. This approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. Ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics are combined to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data observed discretely and possibly with error. The model is a generalization of the Lee–Carter (LC) model and is applied to French mortality data, Australian fertility data and Finish injury data, and the forecasts obtained are shown to be superior to those from the LC method and several of its variants. A new approach called Forecast REsidual Sum of Squares (FRESS) is also proposed to check the forecast accuracy. Using the specific example of Finish injury data, FRESS demonstrated that FDA is superior over the more commonly reported ordinary least square, Poisson and negative binomial modelling approaches in terms of forecast accuracy.
Professor Dr. Jahida Gulshan has been appointed as the new Director of the Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT) on 26 February 2026. She assumed the responsibility from the ... [ Read More ]
Leaving the rigorous world of multivariate analysis and regression models behind for a day, the Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT) family gathered at the tranquil Rupsha Resort in ... [ Read More ]
On January 29, 2026, the Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT), in collaboration with the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), organized an educational field trip to ... [ Read More ]
Md. Delower Hussain Shipon, a Master’s student (batch 27) of the Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT), University of Dhaka, has been awarded the ISRT Golden Jubilee Medal 2025 ... [ Read More ]
Nijam Uddin Sarkar, a Master’s student at the Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT) at the University of Dhaka, was received the Research Excellence Award (Student Category) at the ... [ Read More ]
Mailing Address
Director,
Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT)
University of Dhaka
Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh