Macroeconomic Determinants and Forecasting of Stock Market Capital
May 15, 2012 – 2:47pm
Full Title:
Macroeconomic Determinants and Forecasting of Stock Market Capital: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh
Speaker:
Md. Azim Uddin
Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Date/Time:
Wednesday, May 23, 2012, 10:30am
Venue:
ISRT Seminar Room
ABSTRACT
To diagnosis stock market functioning the present study uses time series of monthly data from November, 2001 to April, 2011 for Bangladesh on the macroeconomic variables, namely, Stock Market Capital, Broad Money, Consumer Price Index, 3-Months Treasury Bill Rate and Industrial Production Index, collected from Dhaka Stock Exchange Ltd. and Bangladesh Bank. Main objective of the planned study is to develop statistical models for the Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Capital of Bangladesh, in addition to, to make the Comparison among Forecasting Models. The methodology of the study is mainly based on Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Function (IRF), Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Stochastic Parameter Model (SPM). Implications of this study include the following. (i) Investors should look at the systematic risks revealed by these macroeconomic variables when structuring their portfolios and diversification strategies. (ii) Policymakers should seek to minimize macroeconomic fluctuations considering the effect of macroeconomic variables changes on the stock market when formulating economic policy.
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Mailing Address
Director,
Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT)
University of Dhaka
Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh